CPD — Continued Prolonged Delays

NI Executive Infrastructure — Announced vs. Delivered

⬡ All-Island Hub
⚠ This tracker records NI Executive infrastructure announcements and compares them to current estimates and actual delivery. Cost overrun figures are based on official and published sources. 2032 projections are illustrative forecasts using BCIS construction inflation rates — not confirmed costs. Data updated manually as new information becomes available.
Cost overrun — accumulating during your visit £0.00 Counting from when you opened this page
Total confirmed overrun — running since announced £3,474,000,000.00
Confirmed cost overrun — announced vs current estimate — vs announced cost across all schemes
Illustrative forecast — if undelivered by end of mandate 2032 — Indicative projection only · BCIS inflation rates · not a confirmed cost
Average delay — per scheme — —
Same money could fund 523,785 Elective surgeries · DoH NI avg £7k/op (Elective Care Framework May 2025) · = 99% of NI's 527,062-patient waiting list (DoH Mar 2026)

At a Glance

Status Breakdown

Delay in Weeks — by Scheme

Cost Variance — Announced vs. Current Estimate (£m)

Cost Escalation Forecast — End of Next NI Executive Mandate (2032)

Projected Cost if Not Completed on Site by End of NI Executive Mandate 2032 — BCIS Inflation Basis (£m)

Civil/infrastructure schemes: ~4.4% p.a. (BCIS civil TPI +24% to 2030). Buildings/health: ~3.2% p.a. (BCIS All-in TPI +17% to 2030). Forecast horizon: end of next NI Executive mandate (2032). Completed schemes and those with confirmed contracts excluded. Source: BCIS Jan 2026 / Julian Hobbs & Co (BCIS).

⚠ Illustrative forecast only — not a confirmed or contracted cost. Projected to 2032 (end of next NI Executive mandate) by compounding current published estimates at BCIS sector inflation rates (civil/infrastructure ~4.4% p.a.; buildings ~3.2% p.a.). The purpose is to show the cost consequence of continued delay, not to predict exact outturn. Actual costs will depend on design development, procurement strategy, programme decisions, and market conditions at time of tender.

Official Sources

Data Sources & References

SchemeSource Document / PublicationPublisher

All costs and programme data are drawn from official NI Executive, DfI, NIAO, DoH and EU sources. Where costs have changed, the most recently published official figure is used as the current estimate. Figures marked ‘announced’ reflect the cost stated at the time of the original ministerial announcement or business case. This tracker is maintained by Kevin Barry QS and is not an official government publication.

CPD Index methodology: CPD-C (Cost) and CPD-D (Delivery) are each scored 0–100. The cost overrun % contribution to CPD-C is capped at 50 points — schemes with overruns above 100% score the maximum on this component. The combined CPD score is the unweighted average of CPD-C and CPD-D. A score of 100 indicates perfect delivery; 0 indicates complete systemic failure.

CPD — about this acronym: CPD stands for Continued Prolonged Delays — a general acronym chosen to highlight the core issues of cost overrun and delayed delivery in public infrastructure. Any similarity to the name or acronym of any existing organisation is purely coincidental and is not intended as a reflection on, or reference to, any such body.

Scheme Register

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Roads & Transport Pipeline — Northern Ireland. A categorised register of road and transport schemes structured by pipeline stage. Based on the scheme register maintained by Wesley Johnston (wesleyjohnston.com/roads), who has tracked NI road schemes since 2004. This register covers roads and transport only — no CPD scoring is applied. For the full scored CPD register across all NI infrastructure sectors, use the CPD Register tab above.
—Total schemes
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