CPD — Continued Prolonged Delays

Projected Cost if Not Completed on Site by End of NI Executive Mandate 2032 — BCIS Inflation Basis (£m)

Civil/infrastructure schemes: ~4.4% p.a. (BCIS civil TPI +24% to 2030). Buildings/health: ~3.2% p.a. (BCIS All-in TPI +17% to 2030). Forecast horizon: end of next NI Executive mandate (2032). Completed schemes and those with confirmed contracts excluded. Source: BCIS Jan 2026 / Julian Hobbs & Co (BCIS).

⚠ Illustrative forecast only — not a confirmed or contracted cost. Projected to 2032 (end of next NI Executive mandate) by compounding current published estimates at BCIS sector inflation rates (civil/infrastructure ~4.4% p.a.; buildings ~3.2% p.a.). The purpose is to show the cost consequence of continued delay, not to predict exact outturn. Actual costs will depend on design development, procurement strategy, programme decisions, and market conditions at time of tender.

Data Sources & References

All costs and programme data are drawn from official NI Executive, DfI, NIAO, DoH and EU sources. Where costs have changed, the most recently published official figure is used as the current estimate. Figures marked 'announced' reflect the cost stated at the time of the original ministerial announcement or business case. This tracker is maintained by Kevin Barry QS (QUINTIN QS) and is not an official government publication. ETI scores and Stranded Value figures are independent analytical indicators — they do not replicate or replace scheme-specific DfI appraisals or WebTAG/TUBA-compliant transport modelling. BCR inputs use published or analogous benchmarks; delivery certainty scores reflect professional judgement applied consistently. The methodology is fully disclosed and grounded in HM Treasury Green Book principles (2026 update). If DfI or any department holds more accurate scheme data, QUINTIN QS will update immediately upon notification. 🍓 If you believe any figure or fact shown here is incorrect, please write to mail@kevinbarryqs.com with the relevant scheme name, the correct figure, and a source reference — we will review and correct immediately if the evidence supports it. We are, after all, still human.

CPD Index methodology: CPD-C (Cost) and CPD-D (Delivery) are each scored 0–100. The cost overrun % contribution to CPD-C is capped at 50 points — schemes with overruns above 100% score the maximum on this component. The combined CPD score applies a 60/40 weighting — 60% CPD-D (Delivery) and 40% CPD-C (Cost), reflecting the judgement that delivery failure imposes compounding societal and economic costs beyond the overrun figure alone. A score of 100 indicates perfect delivery; 0 indicates complete systemic failure.

CPD — about this acronym: CPD stands for Continued Prolonged Delays — a general acronym chosen to highlight the core issues of cost overrun and delayed delivery in public infrastructure. Any similarity to the name or acronym of any existing organisation is purely coincidental and is not intended as a reflection on, or reference to, any such body.